Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Inter Miami CF, while the market favors FC Cincinnati (67%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Inter Miami CF (40%) · Inter Miami CF at 33¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Inter Miami CF
5
Inter Miami CF 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$84.43
41.7¢ → 33¢
-21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralInter Miami CF at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors FC Cincinnati 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Inter Miami CFavg 41.8¢ | $991.04 | $927.97 | -$63.07 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
FO Forecastication2 | FC Cincinnatiavg 58.7¢ | $633 | $631.2 | -$1.8 | 50% 6816-6831 (13647) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | FC Cincinnatiavg 58¢ | $245.52 | $248.02 | +$2.5 | 56% 6927-5543 (12470) |
| └ FC Cincinnati leg | FC Cincinnatiavg 58¢ | $139.16 | $140.36 | +$1.2 | |
| └ Inter Miami CF leg | Inter Miami CFavg 41¢ | $106.37 | $107.66 | +$1.3 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Inter Miami CFavg 41¢ | $410 | $141.66 | -$18.58 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FC Cincinnatiavg 58.5¢ | $99.69 | $97.13 | -$2.56 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
MO mooseborzoii<$100 | FC Cincinnatiavg 56¢ | $87.63 | $89.19 | +$1.56 | 50% 1143-1133 (2276) |
Invested
$991.04
Value
$927.97
PnL
-$63.07
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$633
Value
$631.2
PnL
-$1.8
Record
50%
6816-6831 (13647)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$245.52
Value
$248.02
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
6927-5543 (12470)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$410
Value
$141.66
PnL
-$18.58
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$99.69
Value
$97.13
PnL
-$2.56
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
Invested
$87.63
Value
$89.19
PnL
+$1.56
Record
50%
1143-1133 (2276)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.