Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (67%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-10-28?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 34¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$2.2K
-$234.57
33.3¢ → 33.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 67%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Noavg 33¢ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$200 | 47% 2405-2688 (5093) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 33.9¢ | $340.91 | $337.26 | -$3.65 | 53% 15741-13909 (29650) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 33.5¢ | $338.6 | $335 | +$0 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
HI hi774cCTR | Noavg 33¢ | $227.04 | $230.48 | +$3.44 | 52% 4655-4364 (9019) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 34¢ | $182.77 | $150.52 | -$32.25 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $12.54 | $10.64 | -$1.9 | 49% 1127-1155 (2282) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $1.05 | $0.84 | -$0.21 | 53% 3042-2707 (5749) |
Invested
$1,320
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$200
Record
47%
2405-2688 (5093)
Invested
$340.91
Value
$337.26
PnL
-$3.65
Record
53%
15741-13909 (29650)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$338.6
Value
$335
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$227.04
Value
$230.48
PnL
+$3.44
Record
52%
4655-4364 (9019)
Invested
$182.77
Value
$150.52
PnL
-$32.25
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$10.64
PnL
-$1.9
Record
49%
1127-1155 (2282)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$0.21
Record
53%
3042-2707 (5749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.