Inter Miami CF leading at halftime?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $708 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$707.9
-$14.58
57.4¢ → 100¢
+74% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 49.3¢ | $855 | $412.5 | +$62.1 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 68¢ | $83.61 | $122.94 | +$39.33 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $85.79 | $85.84 | +$0.04 | 99% 12736-184 (12920) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $59.2 | $84.96 | +$25.76 | 49% 18690-19120 (37810) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $1.17 | $1.5 | +$0.33 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 42.4¢ | $142.31 | $0.17 | -$142.14 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$855
Value
$412.5
PnL
+$62.1
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$83.61
Value
$122.94
PnL
+$39.33
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$85.79
Value
$85.84
PnL
+$0.04
Record
99%
12736-184 (12920)
Invested
$59.2
Value
$84.96
PnL
+$25.76
Record
49%
18690-19120 (37810)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0.33
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$142.31
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$142.14
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.