Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.6K
$189.92
81.2¢ → 97.5¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 81.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$198.2 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
NE neymar1CTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $399.96 | $411.07 | +$11.11 | 30% 322-761 (1083) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 81¢ | $382.95 | $382.95 | +$0 | 53% 15769-13947 (29716) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Noavg 81¢ | $173.93 | $196.93 | +$23 | 52% 13597-12434 (26031) |
FO foooool | Noavg 80¢ | $103.57 | $79.73 | -$23.84 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $59.84 | $41.29 | -$18.55 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$1,282.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$198.2
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$399.96
Value
$411.07
PnL
+$11.11
Record
30%
322-761 (1083)
Invested
$382.95
Value
$382.95
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15769-13947 (29716)
Invested
$173.93
Value
$196.93
PnL
+$23
Record
52%
13597-12434 (26031)
Invested
$103.57
Value
$79.73
PnL
-$23.84
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$59.84
Value
$41.29
PnL
-$18.55
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.