Will Inter Miami CF vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 84¢ · $779 held · ended Oct 28

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$778.56

Combined PnL

-$32.95

Smart Money Entry

76¢ → 83.5¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$630.37

Total Shares878

Combined PnL-$45.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$148.18

Total Shares679

Combined PnL+$12.21

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74.3¢	$413.66	$381.2	-$32.46	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
CA Cannae	Noavg 81¢	$141.83	$142.26	+$0.43	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 76.9¢	$120.04	$106.91	-$13.13	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$90	$95	+$2.5	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$40.14	$51	+$10.86	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$3.34	$2.19	-$1.15	53% 2097-1856 (3953)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$413.66

Value

$381.2

PnL

-$32.46

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Cannae

Invested

$141.83

Value

$142.26

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$120.04

Value

$106.91

PnL

-$13.13

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90

Value

$95

PnL

+$2.5

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.14

Value

$51

PnL

+$10.86

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$1.15

Record

53%

2097-1856 (3953)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.