Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: O/U 5.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Over41¢Under59¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$792

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 59.5¢

-30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,522

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,774

Combined PnL+$626.69

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 87.6¢	$3.4K	$2.0K	$-1.4K	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 13¢	$638.69	$1.2K	+$626.32	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 80.2¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$129.63	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
└ Under leg	Underavg 80.2¢	$992.28	$736.15	-$256.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 26.1¢	$229.47	$355.97	+$126.5
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 75.2¢	$258.81	$399.95	+$141.14	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
└ Over leg	Overavg 17.6¢	$118.96	$294.86	+$175.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.2¢	$139.85	$105.09	-$34.76
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 67.3¢	$380.66	$336.32	-$44.34	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 86.7¢	$52.1	$51.38	-$0.71	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 47¢	$11.09	$18.65	+$7.56	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$8.52	$8.89	+$0.37	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 84.5¢	$8.45	$5	-$3.45	48% 2435-2653 (5088)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$3,390.65

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$638.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$626.32

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,221.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$129.63

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

Both legs:

Under$992.2880.2¢-$256.14

Over$229.4726.1¢+$126.5

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$258.81

Value

$399.95

PnL

+$141.14

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

Both legs:

Over$118.9617.6¢+$175.9

Under$139.8575.2¢-$34.76

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$380.66

Value

$336.32

PnL

-$44.34

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$52.1

Value

$51.38

PnL

-$0.71

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$11.09

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$7.56

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.52

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$0.37

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$8.45

Value

PnL

-$3.45

Record

48%

2435-2653 (5088)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.