Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 29¢ · $737 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$736.77
$220.73
29¢ → 29¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 29¢ | $327.7 | $565.09 | +$237.39 | 50% 19212-19597 (38809) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 70.7¢ | $344.4 | $149.63 | -$16.62 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $13.3 | -$0.3 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $5 | $5.43 | +$0.43 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $3.5 | $3.33 | -$0.17 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$327.7
Value
$565.09
PnL
+$237.39
Record
50%
19212-19597 (38809)
VeryLucky888Invested
$344.4
Value
$149.63
PnL
-$16.62
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$13.3
PnL
-$0.3
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$5.43
PnL
+$0.43
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.17
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.