Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$2.7K
-$9.28
48.8¢ → 51.5¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $946.67 | $900.65 | -$46.02 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 48.3¢ | $710.53 | $757.18 | +$46.65 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 us391 | Underavg 49¢ | $508.2 | $503.01 | -$5.19 | 51% 1685-1650 (3335) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Underavg 49¢ | $366.03 | $362.3 | -$3.73 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Overavg 51¢ | $104.04 | $105.06 | +$1.02 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 51¢ | $102 | $100 | -$2 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.53 | $2.7 | +$0.17 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.33 | -$0.17 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$946.67
Value
$900.65
PnL
-$46.02
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$710.53
Value
$757.18
PnL
+$46.65
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
us391Invested
$508.2
Value
$503.01
PnL
-$5.19
Record
51%
1685-1650 (3335)
Invested
$366.03
Value
$362.3
PnL
-$3.73
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
Invested
$104.04
Value
$105.06
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
0xheavy888Invested
$102
Value
$100
PnL
-$2
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.53
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.33
PnL
-$0.17
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.