Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 100¢

+34% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,933

Combined PnL-$243.71

Under6 traders

Total Value$607.38

Total Shares9,009

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 74.5¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	+$11.81	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
└ Over leg	Overavg 74.5¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$141.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 23.2¢	$609.51	$763.05	+$153.54
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 74.3¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$206.87	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 25¢	$786.16	$377.07	-$409.08	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 19.2¢	$239.64	$143.29	-$96.34	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
MA manoamano<$100	Overavg 81.1¢	$99.17	$62.33	-$36.84	51% 483-463 (946)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$74.34	$47.47	-$26.88	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$38.76	$26.89	-$11.87	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.4¢	$1.2K	$12.05	$-1.2K	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.27	$0.61	-$0.66	53% 4883-4360 (9243)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,637.3

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$11.81

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

Both legs:

Over$3,027.7974.5¢-$141.73

Under$609.5123.2¢+$153.54

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$3,574.64

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$206.87

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$786.16

Value

$377.07

PnL

-$409.08

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$239.64

Value

$143.29

PnL

-$96.34

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

manoamano<$100

Over

Invested

$99.17

Value

$62.33

PnL

-$36.84

Record

51%

483-463 (946)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$74.34

Value

$47.47

PnL

-$26.88

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.76

Value

$26.89

PnL

-$11.87

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$1,216.74

Value

$12.05

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.27

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.