Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
$9.7K
$-2.3K
92.9¢ → 100¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NordhavenCap | Overavg 92.5¢ | $6.7K | $5.6K | -$18.37 | 57% 2171-1606 (3777) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 93.1¢ | $5.0K | $3.1K | $-1.8K | 50% 25253-24999 (50252) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 95¢ | $701.79 | $704.97 | +$3.18 | 49% 12704-13137 (25841) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Underavg 6.2¢ | $18.89 | $151.47 | +$132.59 | 49% 8129-8572 (16701) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 5.9¢ | $592.28 | $43.95 | -$548.34 | 50% 33515-33076 (66591) |
MA manoamano<$100 | Overavg 97.8¢ | $99.97 | $39.08 | -$38.18 | 51% 483-463 (946) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $5.96 | $0.04 | -$5.92 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
Invested
$6,745.92
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$18.37
Record
57%
2171-1606 (3777)
Invested
$4,974.46
Value
$3.1K
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
50%
25253-24999 (50252)
Invested
$701.79
Value
$704.97
PnL
+$3.18
Record
49%
12704-13137 (25841)
Invested
$18.89
Value
$151.47
PnL
+$132.59
Record
49%
8129-8572 (16701)
Invested
$592.28
Value
$43.95
PnL
-$548.34
Record
50%
33515-33076 (66591)
Invested
$99.97
Value
$39.08
PnL
-$38.18
Record
51%
483-463 (946)
Invested
$5.96
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$5.92
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.