Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Los Angeles Galaxy, while the market favors Austin FC (53%). 4 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)
4 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Los Angeles Galaxy (24%) · Los Angeles Galaxy at 48¢ · $83K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Los Angeles Galaxy
17
Los Angeles Galaxy 24%
2 arb excluded
$83.4K
-$455.8
51.4¢ → 47.5¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralLos Angeles Galaxy at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 17 top traders (24%)Underdog side (market favors Austin FC 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 51.4¢ | $54.5K | $53.5K | -$914.57 | 45% 56-68 (124) |
UP UpTheBlues | Austin FCavg 47.6¢ | $8.8K | $9.5K | +$632.33 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Austin FCavg 49.8¢ | $5.0K | $5.2K | +$84.83 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
| └ Austin FC leg | Austin FCavg 49.8¢ | $3.9K | $4.0K | -$22.43 | |
| └ Los Angeles Galaxy leg | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 45.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$107.26 | |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Austin FCavg 48¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$53.61 | 55% 1747-1441 (3188) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Austin FCavg 52.3¢ | $2.1K | $1.9K | -$171.44 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Austin FCavg 51¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$75 | 47% 2521-2820 (5341) |
HI hi774c | Austin FCavg 49.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.64 | 52% 4736-4456 (9192) |
CA Cannae | Austin FCavg 47.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$46.52 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
FO forecastication4 | Austin FCavg 49¢ | $980 | $990 | +$10 | 49% 1168-1197 (2365) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Austin FCavg 51.2¢ | $814 | $804 | -$22 | 55% 7136-5731 (12867) |
| └ Austin FC leg | Austin FCavg 51.2¢ | $614 | $606 | -$20 | |
| └ Los Angeles Galaxy leg | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 50¢ | $200 | $198 | -$2 | |
 poshposh | Austin FCavg 48¢ | $720 | $712.5 | -$7.5 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
 sapupu | Austin FCavg 50¢ | $550 | $544.5 | -$5.5 | 58% 72-52 (124) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Austin FCavg 48.8¢ | $320.84 | $313.95 | -$6.89 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
 HRTrading | Austin FCavg 48.2¢ | $193.06 | $210.2 | +$17.14 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
NA NatoAlfista | Austin FCavg 48.1¢ | $163.52 | $168.3 | +$4.78 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 50.9¢ | $2.9K | $168 | -$80.05 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 50¢ | $46.97 | $46.5 | -$0.47 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 50¢ | $29.5 | $29.21 | -$0.3 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Austin FCavg 56.5¢ | $5.65 | $4.95 | -$0.6 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$54,452.03
Value
$53.5K
PnL
-$914.57
Record
45%
56-68 (124)
Invested
$8,828.44
Value
$9.5K
PnL
+$632.33
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$4,997.88
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$84.83
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,972.54
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$53.61
Record
55%
1747-1441 (3188)
Invested
$2,109.14
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$171.44
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
Invested
$1,530
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$75
Record
47%
2521-2820 (5341)
Invested
$1,461.52
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.64
Record
52%
4736-4456 (9192)
Invested
$1,251.54
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$46.52
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$980
Value
$990
PnL
+$10
Record
49%
1168-1197 (2365)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$814
Value
$804
PnL
-$22
Record
55%
7136-5731 (12867)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$720
Value
$712.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
sapupuInvested
$550
Value
$544.5
PnL
-$5.5
Record
58%
72-52 (124)
Invested
$320.84
Value
$313.95
PnL
-$6.89
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
HRTradingInvested
$193.06
Value
$210.2
PnL
+$17.14
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$163.52
Value
$168.3
PnL
+$4.78
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$2,927.78
Value
$168
PnL
-$80.05
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$46.97
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$0.47
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$29.21
PnL
-$0.3
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.6
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
OhWhenTheReds
CTRLos Angeles Galaxy — $53.5K
UpTheBlues
Austin FC — $9.5K
GoalLineGhost
ARBArbitrage — excluded
VD721lsj4938Dk388
Austin FC — $4.9K
AnonymousUsername
Austin FC — $1.9K
0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542
Austin FC — $1.6K
hi774c
Austin FC — $1.5K
Cannae
Austin FC — $1.3K
forecastication4
Austin FC — $990
0xheavy888
ARBArbitrage — excluded