Spread: Austin FC (-1.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Los Angeles Galaxy (100%) · Los Angeles Galaxy at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Los Angeles Galaxy
6
Los Angeles Galaxy 100%
$6.5K
$92.38
96.8¢ → 99.6¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralLos Angeles Galaxy at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 96.4¢ | $4.0K | $4.1K | +$90.92 | 50% 25253-24999 (50252) |
NO NordhavenCap | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 97¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$18.74 | 57% 2171-1606 (3777) |
LU LuckyLoo | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 98¢ | $669.83 | $680.08 | +$10.25 | 49% 12704-13137 (25841) |
UP UpTheBlues | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 97.8¢ | $430.74 | $438.23 | +$7.49 | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 98.6¢ | $50.31 | $50.75 | +$0.44 | 53% 4883-4360 (9243) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Los Angeles Galaxyavg 95¢ | $42.75 | $44.78 | +$2.02 | 58% 28818-21252 (50070) |
Invested
$4,038.06
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$90.92
Record
50%
25253-24999 (50252)
Invested
$1,210.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$18.74
Record
57%
2171-1606 (3777)
Invested
$669.83
Value
$680.08
PnL
+$10.25
Record
49%
12704-13137 (25841)
Invested
$430.74
Value
$438.23
PnL
+$7.49
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$50.31
Value
$50.75
PnL
+$0.44
Record
53%
4883-4360 (9243)
Invested
$42.75
Value
$44.78
PnL
+$2.02
Record
58%
28818-21252 (50070)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.