Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-10-31?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 67¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$1.8K
-$12.34
Research grade
NeutralYes at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL oliverea | Yesavg 66¢ | $887.58 | $887.58 | +$0 | 59% 312-216 (528) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 33.7¢ | $412.55 | $404.25 | -$8.3 | 45% 669-828 (1497) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 33.1¢ | $172.52 | $172.09 | -$0.43 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 33.4¢ | $172.74 | $170.92 | -$1.82 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.6¢ | $75.29 | $73.92 | -$1.37 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $72.93 | $72.93 | +$0 | 53% 15879-14069 (29948) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $5.31 | $4.87 | -$0.37 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $1.65 | -$0.05 | 47% 2258-2548 (4806) |
Invested
$887.58
Value
$887.58
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
312-216 (528)
Invested
$412.55
Value
$404.25
PnL
-$8.3
Record
45%
669-828 (1497)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$172.52
Value
$172.09
PnL
-$0.43
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$172.74
Value
$170.92
PnL
-$1.82
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$75.29
Value
$73.92
PnL
-$1.37
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$72.93
Value
$72.93
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15879-14069 (29948)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.31
Value
$4.87
PnL
-$0.37
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
2258-2548 (4806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.