Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Los Angeles Galaxy leading at halftime?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
$-1.4K
46.2¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 69.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$124.72 | 50% 25253-24999 (50252) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 69.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.1K | -$472.77 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 15.3¢ | $149.52 | $497.57 | +$348.05 | |
NO NordhavenCap | Yesavg 84.6¢ | $603.03 | $708.6 | +$105.57 | 57% 2171-1606 (3777) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $244.09 | $376.25 | +$132.15 | 49% 8129-8572 (16701) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 46.2¢ | $1.7K | $81.71 | $-1.6K | 59% 46056-32360 (78416) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $9.98 | $15.83 | +$5.85 | 59% 10284-7273 (17557) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $1.66 | $2 | +$0.34 | 53% 4883-4360 (9243) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $65.78 | $0.07 | -$65.71 | 49% 12704-13137 (25841) |
Invested
$1,765
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$124.72
Record
50%
25253-24999 (50252)
Both legs:
Invested
$603.03
Value
$708.6
PnL
+$105.57
Record
57%
2171-1606 (3777)
Invested
$244.09
Value
$376.25
PnL
+$132.15
Record
49%
8129-8572 (16701)
Invested
$1,688.61
Value
$81.71
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
59%
46056-32360 (78416)
poshposh<$100Invested
$9.98
Value
$15.83
PnL
+$5.85
Record
59%
10284-7273 (17557)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
4883-4360 (9243)
Invested
$65.78
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$65.71
Record
49%
12704-13137 (25841)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.