Will Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC end in a draw?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 96¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$248.4

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 96.1¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares12,377

Combined PnL-$187.86

Yes4 traders

Total Value$131.1

Total Shares1,958

Combined PnL-$60.54

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 87.8¢	$6.9K	$6.9K	+$18.33	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 92¢	$5.1K	$4.9K	-$210.24	50% 25253-24999 (50252)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Noavg 95¢	$198.34	$208.34	+$10	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
└ No leg	Noavg 95¢	$123.5	$124.15	+$0.65
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4¢	$74.84	$84.2	+$9.35
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 89¢	$102	$106.72	+$4.72	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$68	$67.62	-$0.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10¢	$34	$39.1	+$5.1
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$24.97	$60.16	+$35.19	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$127.44	$35.84	-$91.6	49% 12704-13137 (25841)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$38.13	$34.65	-$3.48	59% 46056-32360 (78416)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 89¢	$11.4	$15.44	+$4.04	52% 13824-12612 (26436)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.1	$0.45	-$0.65	53% 4883-4360 (9243)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$6,858.03

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$18.33

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$5,067.7

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$210.24

Record

50%

25253-24999 (50252)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Invested

$198.34

Value

$208.34

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

Both legs:

No$123.595¢+$0.65

Yes$74.844¢+$9.35

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$102

Value

$106.72

PnL

+$4.72

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

Both legs:

Invested

$24.97

Value

$60.16

PnL

+$35.19

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$127.44

Value

$35.84

PnL

-$91.6

Record

49%

12704-13137 (25841)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.13

Value

$34.65

PnL

-$3.48

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$15.44

PnL

+$4.04

Record

52%

13824-12612 (26436)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.1

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.65

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.