Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to Score

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,187

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,336

Combined PnL-$299.38

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 48.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$47.18	50% 33515-33076 (66591)
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 52.8¢	$961.59	$891.61	-$69.97	57% 2171-1606 (3777)
TO torta.techCTR	Noavg 50.8¢	$495.14	$482.13	-$13.01	63% 8141-4878 (13019)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 62.3¢	$404.42	$276.37	-$128.05	55% 7155-5744 (12899)
US User7429	Yesavg 51¢	$149.91	$144.03	-$5.88	55% 8318-6708 (15026)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 61.3¢	$133.99	$116.88	-$17.11	50% 10935-10765 (21700)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.3¢	$89.61	$71.61	-$18
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$44.38	$45.27	+$0.89
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 62¢	$155	$72.63	-$32.37	58% 42088-30563 (72651)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 63¢	$102.69	$69.27	-$33.42	73% 6703-2419 (9122)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 57.5¢	$67.8	$63.75	-$4.06	49% 8129-8572 (16701)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$78.75	$53.13	-$25.63	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 36.5¢	$12.82	$15.61	+$2.79	53% 4883-4360 (9243)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 38¢	$1.2K	$9.56	$-1.2K	59% 46056-32360 (78416)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,003.75

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$47.18

Record

50%

33515-33076 (66591)

NordhavenCap

Yes

Invested

$961.59

Value

$891.61

PnL

-$69.97

Record

57%

2171-1606 (3777)

torta.techCTR

Invested

$495.14

Value

$482.13

PnL

-$13.01

Record

63%

8141-4878 (13019)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$404.42

Value

$276.37

PnL

-$128.05

Record

55%

7155-5744 (12899)

User7429

Yes

Invested

$149.91

Value

$144.03

PnL

-$5.88

Record

55%

8318-6708 (15026)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$133.99

Value

$116.88

PnL

-$17.11

Record

50%

10935-10765 (21700)

Both legs:

Invested

$155

Value

$72.63

PnL

-$32.37

Record

58%

42088-30563 (72651)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$102.69

Value

$69.27

PnL

-$33.42

Record

73%

6703-2419 (9122)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.8

Value

$63.75

PnL

-$4.06

Record

49%

8129-8572 (16701)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.75

Value

$53.13

PnL

-$25.63

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$12.82

Value

$15.61

PnL

+$2.79

Record

53%

4883-4360 (9243)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$1,195.3

Value

$9.56

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

59%

46056-32360 (78416)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.