Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Austin FC win on 2026-10-31?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 13¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$61.43

Smart Money Entry

12.4¢ → 12.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares10,575

Combined PnL+$12.39

No1 trader

Total Value$354.3

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$73.81

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR	Yesavg 12.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$8.68	32% 731-1558 (2289)
CA Cannae	Noavg 87¢	$428.11	$354.3	-$73.81	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 12.4¢	$265.31	$267.38	+$2.07	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
AN AnonymousUsernameARB<$100	Noavg 83¢	$139.1	$146.02	+$2.45	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
└ No leg	Noavg 83¢	$92.96	$98	+$0.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12¢	$46.14	$48.02	+$1.89
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$20.45	$21.31	+$0.85	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$1.06	$1.84	+$0.79	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,023.7

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.68

Record

32%

731-1558 (2289)

Cannae

Invested

$428.11

Value

$354.3

PnL

-$73.81

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$265.31

Value

$267.38

PnL

+$2.07

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

AnonymousUsernameARB<$100

Invested

$139.1

Value

$146.02

PnL

+$2.45

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

Both legs:

No$92.9683¢+$0.56

Yes$46.1412¢+$1.89

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.45

Value

$21.31

PnL

+$0.85

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.