Los Angeles FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 7.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $112K held · ended Nov 2

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$112.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$112.5K

Total Shares113,697

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Over1 trader

Total Value$14.43

Total Shares1,110

Combined PnL+$13.32

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL alohaa	Underavg 99.9¢	$111.6K	$110.3K	$-1.3K	64% 1248-701 (1949)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 97.2¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$177.03	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 97.5¢	$206.01	$208.54	+$2.53	50% 26089-25965 (52054)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 98¢	$30	$29.75	+$0.35	57% 29485-21828 (51313)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 0.1¢	$1.11	$14.43	+$13.32	53% 6253-5611 (11864)

alohaa

Under

Invested

$111,611.58

Value

$110.3K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

64%

1248-701 (1949)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,777.04

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$177.03

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$206.01

Value

$208.54

PnL

+$2.53

Record

50%

26089-25965 (52054)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$30

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.35

Record

57%

29485-21828 (51313)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.11

Value

$14.43

PnL

+$13.32

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.