Los Angeles FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 5.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 2

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$48.39

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 99.5¢

+11% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,048

Combined PnL+$418.74

Over5 traders

Total Value$112.93

Total Shares7,478

Combined PnL-$370.35

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 90.9¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$188.66	50% 26089-25965 (52054)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 88.4¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$215.11	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 87¢	$315.54	$308.29	-$7.25	58% 43195-31436 (74631)
poshposh	Underavg 86.4¢	$145.75	$166.21	+$20.46	58% 10953-7928 (18881)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 97¢	$78.78	$80.39	+$1.61	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 15¢	$103.7	$52.7	-$51	58% 2276-1668 (3944)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 9.5¢	$282.03	$43.14	-$238.89	53% 11153-9754 (20907)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 87.2¢	$17.44	$17.59	+$0.15	52% 7590-6879 (14469)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 87¢	$17.4	$17.4	+$0	55% 7414-5959 (13373)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$67.99	$8.11	-$59.88	49% 13241-13951 (27192)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$47.98	$4.96	+$14.39	51% 516-489 (1005)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$39	$4.03	-$34.97	50% 34197-33747 (67944)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,268.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$188.66

Record

50%

26089-25965 (52054)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,679.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$215.11

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$315.54

Value

$308.29

PnL

-$7.25

Record

58%

43195-31436 (74631)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$145.75

Value

$166.21

PnL

+$20.46

Record

58%

10953-7928 (18881)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$78.78

Value

$80.39

PnL

+$1.61

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$103.7

Value

$52.7

PnL

-$51

Record

58%

2276-1668 (3944)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$282.03

Value

$43.14

PnL

-$238.89

Record

53%

11153-9754 (20907)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$17.44

Value

$17.59

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

7590-6879 (14469)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.99

Value

$8.11

PnL

-$59.88

Record

49%

13241-13951 (27192)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.98

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$14.39

Record

51%

516-489 (1005)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$34.97

Record

50%

34197-33747 (67944)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.