Los Angeles FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 95¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 2

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$482.83

Smart Money Entry

79.3¢ → 95¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares16,223

Combined PnL+$587.83

Over5 traders

Total Value$462.04

Total Shares7,610

Combined PnL-$105

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graziek99	Underavg 93.2¢	$6.1K	$6.1K	-$15.93	88% 453-64 (517)
LH lhetorar	Underavg 66¢	$2.5K	$3.6K	+$75.76	69% 160-71 (231)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 75.1¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$195.37	50% 26089-25965 (52054)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 69.1¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$323.67	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 6.7¢	$285.93	$344.56	+$58.63	49% 13241-13951 (27192)
└ Under leg	Underavg 66.1¢	$127.02	$178.55	+$51.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 6.7¢	$158.92	$166.01	+$7.09
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 6.7¢	$286.76	$301.74	+$14.98	50% 34197-33747 (67944)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 34.8¢	$238.24	$129.03	-$109.21	58% 2276-1668 (3944)
TO topdogbigboi	Underavg 86.2¢	$108.91	$115.98	+$7.07	48% 9522-10247 (19769)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 28.2¢	$224.63	$95.08	-$129.55	50% 11378-11225 (22603)
└ Under leg	Underavg 70.9¢	$49.92	$67.23	+$17.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.2¢	$174.71	$27.86	-$146.86
ZaiZoiBeleCTR<$100	Overavg 10.3¢	$30.63	$24.14	-$6.49	80% 5120-1267 (6387)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 74¢	$11.1	$10.35	-$0.75	55% 7414-5959 (13373)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 69¢	$6.9	$9.55	+$2.65	62% 8259-4967 (13226)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$10.39	$6.23	-$4.15	51% 516-489 (1005)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 4¢	$1.03	$0.9	-$0.13	53% 6253-5611 (11864)

graziek99

Under

Invested

$6,074.09

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$15.93

Record

88%

453-64 (517)

lhetorar

Under

Invested

$2,499.67

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$75.76

Record

69%

160-71 (231)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,677.33

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$195.37

Record

50%

26089-25965 (52054)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,367.01

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$323.67

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$285.93

Value

$344.56

PnL

+$58.63

Record

49%

13241-13951 (27192)

Both legs:

Under$127.0266.1¢+$51.53

Over$158.926.7¢+$7.09

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$286.76

Value

$301.74

PnL

+$14.98

Record

50%

34197-33747 (67944)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$238.24

Value

$129.03

PnL

-$109.21

Record

58%

2276-1668 (3944)

topdogbigboi

Under

Invested

$108.91

Value

$115.98

PnL

+$7.07

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$224.63

Value

$95.08

PnL

-$129.55

Record

50%

11378-11225 (22603)

Both legs:

Under$49.9270.9¢+$17.31

Over$174.7128.2¢-$146.86

ZaiZoiBeleCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.63

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$6.49

Record

80%

5120-1267 (6387)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$11.1

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$0.75

Record

55%

7414-5959 (13373)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$2.65

Record

62%

8259-4967 (13226)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.39

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$4.15

Record

51%

516-489 (1005)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.1%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.