Los Angeles FC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 65¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 2

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

42.8¢ → 64.5¢

+51% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares13,071

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,168

Combined PnL-$88.44

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 44.1¢	$3.2K	$4.1K	+$916.34	58% 47728-33904 (81632)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$3.1K	$3.6K	+$507.39	50% 26089-25965 (52054)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.9¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$347
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.8¢	$893.8	$1.1K	+$160.39
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 63¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$91.43	58% 2276-1668 (3944)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 35.9¢	$914.72	$1.9K	+$937.02	49% 13241-13951 (27192)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 40.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$42.87	50% 34197-33747 (67944)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 55.6¢	$583.51	$718.84	-$163.88	58% 43195-31436 (74631)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 44.7¢	$114.26	$126.31	+$12.05	50% 11378-11225 (22603)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.7¢	$99.34	$86.74	-$12.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 23¢	$14.92	$39.58	+$24.66
HRTrading	Underavg 38.6¢	$67.3	$106.48	+$39.19	53% 6253-5611 (11864)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$49.18	$47.62	-$1.17	51% 516-489 (1005)
TO torta.tech<$100	Underavg 47¢	$46.53	$38.61	-$7.92	62% 8259-4967 (13226)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 56¢	$31.92	$23.66	-$8.27	57% 29485-21828 (51313)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 35.5¢	$11.01	$12.87	+$1.86	59% 30767-21484 (52251)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$4.38	$6.68	+$2.3	51% 3447-3369 (6816)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.93	+$0.32	48% 9522-10247 (19769)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,228.12

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$916.34

Record

58%

47728-33904 (81632)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,078.23

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$507.39

Record

50%

26089-25965 (52054)

Both legs:

Under$2,184.4350.9¢+$347

Over$893.834.8¢+$160.39

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$1,920

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$91.43

Record

58%

2276-1668 (3944)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$914.72

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$937.02

Record

49%

13241-13951 (27192)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$1,228.32

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$42.87

Record

50%

34197-33747 (67944)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$583.51

Value

$718.84

PnL

-$163.88

Record

58%

43195-31436 (74631)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$114.26

Value

$126.31

PnL

+$12.05

Record

50%

11378-11225 (22603)

Both legs:

Under$99.3444.7¢-$12.6

Over$14.9223¢+$24.66

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$67.3

Value

$106.48

PnL

+$39.19

Record

53%

6253-5611 (11864)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.18

Value

$47.62

PnL

-$1.17

Record

51%

516-489 (1005)

torta.tech<$100

Under

Invested

$46.53

Value

$38.61

PnL

-$7.92

Record

62%

8259-4967 (13226)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.92

Value

$23.66

PnL

-$8.27

Record

57%

29485-21828 (51313)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.01

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$1.86

Record

59%

30767-21484 (52251)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.38

Value

$6.68

PnL

+$2.3

Record

51%

3447-3369 (6816)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

9522-10247 (19769)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 12 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.