Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Los Angeles FC, while the market favors Minnesota United FC (76%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Los Angeles FC (83%) · Los Angeles FC at 24¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Los Angeles FC
6
Los Angeles FC 83%
1 arb excluded
$6.5K
$246.6
84.3¢ → 24.4¢
-71% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidLos Angeles FC at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Minnesota United FC 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Los Angeles FCavg 85.8¢ | $3.6K | $3.8K | +$218.27 | 50% 26089-25965 (52054) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Los Angeles FCavg 83¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | +$18.99 | 58% 2276-1668 (3944) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 29.3¢ | $290.39 | $597.49 | +$307.1 | 58% 47728-33904 (81632) |
| └ Minnesota United FC leg | Minnesota United FCavg 11.1¢ | $59.65 | $402.4 | +$342.75 | |
| └ Los Angeles FC leg | Los Angeles FCavg 29.3¢ | $230.74 | $195.1 | -$35.64 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Los Angeles FCavg 85¢ | $244.82 | $239.12 | -$5.7 | 50% 34197-33747 (67944) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 84.1¢ | $62.01 | $65.4 | +$3.39 | 53% 6253-5611 (11864) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Minnesota United FCavg 28.2¢ | $12.35 | $23.84 | +$11.48 | 48% 9522-10247 (19769) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 26.6¢ | $5 | $5.17 | +$0.17 | 50% 11378-11225 (22603) |
Invested
$3,612.33
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$218.27
Record
50%
26089-25965 (52054)
Invested
$1,848.12
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$18.99
Record
58%
2276-1668 (3944)
Invested
$290.39
Value
$597.49
PnL
+$307.1
Record
58%
47728-33904 (81632)
Both legs:
Invested
$244.82
Value
$239.12
PnL
-$5.7
Record
50%
34197-33747 (67944)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$62.01
Value
$65.4
PnL
+$3.39
Record
53%
6253-5611 (11864)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$23.84
PnL
+$11.48
Record
48%
9522-10247 (19769)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$0.17
Record
50%
11378-11225 (22603)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
CTRLos Angeles FC — $3.8K
NordhavenCap
CTRLos Angeles FC — $1.7K
UpTheBlues
ARBArbitrage — excluded
SnakeBall
CTRLos Angeles FC — $239.12
HRTrading
CTRLos Angeles FC — $65.4
topdogbigboi
Minnesota United FC — $23.84
foooool
CTRLos Angeles FC — $5.17