Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Minnesota United FC (33%) · Minnesota United FC at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Minnesota United FC
9
Minnesota United FC 33%
$2.0K
$242.9
41.5¢ → 98¢
+136% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralMinnesota United FC at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Minnesota United FCavg 39.8¢ | $437.33 | $716.76 | +$279.42 | 58% 47728-33904 (81632) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Los Angeles FCavg 57¢ | $700.53 | $709.92 | +$12.24 | 58% 2276-1668 (3944) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Minnesota United FCavg 43¢ | $473.58 | $462.85 | -$10.74 | 50% 26089-25965 (52054) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 47¢ | $15.94 | $19.67 | +$3.73 | 58% 10953-7928 (18881) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 53¢ | $15.9 | $17.4 | +$1.5 | 50% 34197-33747 (67944) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 51¢ | $15.3 | $17.4 | +$2.1 | 49% 13241-13951 (27192) |
FO foooool<$100 | Minnesota United FCavg 51¢ | $9.69 | $7.98 | -$1.71 | 50% 11378-11225 (22603) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 48¢ | $48 | $4 | -$44 | 48% 9522-10247 (19769) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Los Angeles FCavg 44¢ | $1.1 | $1.45 | +$0.35 | 53% 6253-5611 (11864) |
Invested
$437.33
Value
$716.76
PnL
+$279.42
Record
58%
47728-33904 (81632)
Invested
$700.53
Value
$709.92
PnL
+$12.24
Record
58%
2276-1668 (3944)
Invested
$473.58
Value
$462.85
PnL
-$10.74
Record
50%
26089-25965 (52054)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$15.94
Value
$19.67
PnL
+$3.73
Record
58%
10953-7928 (18881)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$17.4
PnL
+$1.5
Record
50%
34197-33747 (67944)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$17.4
PnL
+$2.1
Record
49%
13241-13951 (27192)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$7.98
PnL
-$1.71
Record
50%
11378-11225 (22603)
Invested
$48
Value
$4
PnL
-$44
Record
48%
9522-10247 (19769)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0.35
Record
53%
6253-5611 (11864)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Minnesota United FC — $716.76
NordhavenCap
CTRLos Angeles FC — $709.92
GoalLineGhost
Minnesota United FC — $462.85
poshposh
CTRLos Angeles FC — $19.67
SnakeBall
CTRLos Angeles FC — $17.4
LuckyLoo
CTRLos Angeles FC — $17.4
foooool
Minnesota United FC — $7.98
topdogbigboi
CTRLos Angeles FC — $4
HRTrading
CTRLos Angeles FC — $1.45