Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 43¢ · $739 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$738.76
-$0.58
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
41h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Noavg 42¢ | $378.95 | $369.92 | +$4.51 | 51% 1708-1674 (3382) |
OL oliverea | Yesavg 59¢ | $350 | $341.1 | -$8.9 | 58% 318-228 (546) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $18.85 | $18.85 | -$0 | 53% 5561-4981 (10542) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $4.93 | $4.89 | -$0.04 | 53% 2243-1975 (4218) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 58¢ | $161.94 | $4 | +$3.85 | 58% 42612-31008 (73620) |
us391CTRInvested
$378.95
Value
$369.92
PnL
+$4.51
Record
51%
1708-1674 (3382)
Invested
$350
Value
$341.1
PnL
-$8.9
Record
58%
318-228 (546)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$18.85
Value
$18.85
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5561-4981 (10542)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$4.89
PnL
-$0.04
Record
53%
2243-1975 (4218)
VeryLucky888Invested
$161.94
Value
$4
PnL
+$3.85
Record
58%
42612-31008 (73620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.