Los Angeles FC vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 71¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 25%
$7.8K
$1.2K
31.8¢ → 71¢
+123% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 35.3¢ | $2.0K | $3.5K | +$1.6K | 58% 47728-33904 (81632) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Yesavg 77.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$39.17 | 58% 2276-1668 (3944) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 28.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | -$266.01 | 50% 34197-33747 (67944) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Yesavg 63.1¢ | $403.35 | $485.64 | +$82.29 | 55% 7414-5959 (13373) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 69.5¢ | $273.74 | $157.44 | -$116.29 | 50% 11378-11225 (22603) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $7.48 | $7.48 | +$0 | 53% 6253-5611 (11864) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 62.8¢ | $12.1 | $6.17 | -$5.94 | 48% 9522-10247 (19769) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.5¢ | $4.85 | $1.85 | +$0.8 | 53% 2302-2010 (4312) |
Invested
$1,989.32
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
58%
47728-33904 (81632)
Invested
$2,465.46
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$39.17
Record
58%
2276-1668 (3944)
Invested
$1,475.95
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$266.01
Record
50%
34197-33747 (67944)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$403.35
Value
$485.64
PnL
+$82.29
Record
55%
7414-5959 (13373)
Invested
$273.74
Value
$157.44
PnL
-$116.29
Record
50%
11378-11225 (22603)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.48
Value
$7.48
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6253-5611 (11864)
Invested
$12.1
Value
$6.17
PnL
-$5.94
Record
48%
9522-10247 (19769)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
2302-2010 (4312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.