FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 99¢ · $857 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$857.45
$37.31
92.9¢ → 98.9¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 93¢ | $799.46 | $850.4 | +$50.94 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 69.1¢ | $2.09 | $2.98 | +$0.9 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 9.6¢ | $13.74 | $1.57 | -$12.17 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $2.03 | $1.35 | -$0.68 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 2.7¢ | $2.84 | $1.16 | -$1.68 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
Invested
$799.46
Value
$850.4
PnL
+$50.94
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.09
Value
$2.98
PnL
+$0.9
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$13.74
Value
$1.57
PnL
-$12.17
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$0.68
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$1.68
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.