FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$2.9K
$402.53
63.1¢ → 99.5¢
+58% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 65.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.8K | +$621.8 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 35.8¢ | $878.7 | $564.79 | -$313.91 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 55¢ | $161.85 | $226.8 | +$64.95 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
FO foooool | Underavg 57¢ | $123.69 | $213.96 | +$90.27 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
KY Kyn008CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $89.99 | $26 | -$63.99 | 49% 238-252 (490) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $8.21 | $8.42 | +$0.2 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 53.6¢ | $3.23 | $5.91 | +$2.68 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $0.7 | $1.24 | +$0.54 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
Invested
$1,220.85
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$621.8
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$878.7
Value
$564.79
PnL
-$313.91
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
VeryLucky888Invested
$161.85
Value
$226.8
PnL
+$64.95
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$123.69
Value
$213.96
PnL
+$90.27
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$89.99
Value
$26
PnL
-$63.99
Record
49%
238-252 (490)
Invested
$8.21
Value
$8.42
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.23
Value
$5.91
PnL
+$2.68
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$1.24
PnL
+$0.54
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.