FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$2.0K
$189.27
77.8¢ → 96.9¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 78.7¢ | $698.83 | $843.6 | +$144.77 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 82¢ | $492.82 | $528.88 | +$36.06 | 50% 33488-33047 (66535) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 81.4¢ | $350.82 | $354.81 | +$3.99 | 49% 12681-13099 (25780) |
FO foooool | Underavg 62.7¢ | $112.32 | $166.49 | +$54.17 | 50% 10919-10736 (21655) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 63.1¢ | $64.8 | $63.68 | -$1.11 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Overavg 66¢ | $154.5 | $46.35 | -$55.62 | 49% 238-252 (490) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 33.3¢ | $3.22 | $8.8 | +$5.58 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 67¢ | $3.57 | $5 | +$1.43 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$698.83
Value
$843.6
PnL
+$144.77
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$492.82
Value
$528.88
PnL
+$36.06
Record
50%
33488-33047 (66535)
Invested
$350.82
Value
$354.81
PnL
+$3.99
Record
49%
12681-13099 (25780)
Invested
$112.32
Value
$166.49
PnL
+$54.17
Record
50%
10919-10736 (21655)
Invested
$64.8
Value
$63.68
PnL
-$1.11
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$154.5
Value
$46.35
PnL
-$55.62
Record
49%
238-252 (490)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.22
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$5.58
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.43
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.