Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (65%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 36¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 35.5¢

-38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,484

Combined PnL+$911.96

Over7 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,607

Combined PnL+$140.02

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 43.7¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$918.58	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 67.2¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$323.23	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 73.1¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$515.46	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.1¢	$1.2K	$913.93	-$334.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$803.31	$622.57	-$180.74
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 25¢	$331.03	$794.47	+$463.44	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 48.8¢	$115.47	$129.97	+$14.51	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.8¢	$65.49	$85.3	+$19.81
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.8¢	$49.98	$44.68	-$5.3
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 86¢	$387	$84.65	-$6.35	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 62¢	$62.67	$55.81	-$6.87	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$32.97	$29.73	-$3.23	64% 1125-646 (1771)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 86¢	$29.24	$27.2	+$0.17	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$17.91	$27.1	+$9.19	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.05	-$0.05	85% 5371-932 (6303)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 86¢	$4.3	$4	+$0.03	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 48¢	$1.32	$1.62	+$0.3	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,927.58

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$918.58

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,914.59

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$323.23

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,051.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$515.46

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

Both legs:

Under$1,248.6573.1¢-$334.71

Over$803.3160¢-$180.74

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$331.03

Value

$794.47

PnL

+$463.44

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$115.47

Value

$129.97

PnL

+$14.51

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Both legs:

Under$65.4948.8¢+$19.81

Over$49.9840.8¢-$5.3

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$387

Value

$84.65

PnL

-$6.35

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$62.67

Value

$55.81

PnL

-$6.87

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Rocko33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.97

Value

$29.73

PnL

-$3.23

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.24

Value

$27.2

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.91

Value

$27.1

PnL

+$9.19

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.05

Record

85%

5371-932 (6303)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.3

Value

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.