Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 88¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 31

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$78.6

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 87.5¢

+119% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,046

Combined PnL+$592.89

No4 traders

Total Value$645.64

Total Shares2,429

Combined PnL-$671.49

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 41.7¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$412.52	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 24.9¢	$253.77	$520.31	+$266.54	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 74.7¢	$1.0K	$350.94	-$657.79	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 28.4¢	$304.03	$289.53	-$14.5	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
AN AnonymousUsername	Yesavg 40.5¢	$324.71	$269.76	-$54.95	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 36.8¢	$321.55	$262.45	-$59.1	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
poshposh	Yesavg 66¢	$100.27	$110.13	+$9.87	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 63.6¢	$98.32	$94.96	-$3.36	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$42.08	$76.43	+$34.35	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$45.92	$35.84	-$10.08	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 40.7¢	$11.01	$8.12	-$2.89	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3	$3.5	+$0.5	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$1.38	$1.68	+$0.3	55% 7136-5731 (12867)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,746.23

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$412.52

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$253.77

Value

$520.31

PnL

+$266.54

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$1,008.72

Value

$350.94

PnL

-$657.79

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$304.03

Value

$289.53

PnL

-$14.5

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

AnonymousUsername

Yes

Invested

$324.71

Value

$269.76

PnL

-$54.95

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$321.55

Value

$262.45

PnL

-$59.1

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$100.27

Value

$110.13

PnL

+$9.87

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.32

Value

$94.96

PnL

-$3.36

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.08

Value

$76.43

PnL

+$34.35

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.92

Value

$35.84

PnL

-$10.08

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.01

Value

$8.12

PnL

-$2.89

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.68

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.