Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 14¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$112.25

Smart Money Entry

43.3¢ → 14¢

-68% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,334

Combined PnL+$561.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$671.37

Total Shares3,077

Combined PnL-$673.95

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 52¢	$1.1K	$1.6K	+$539.15	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$995.04	$476.79	-$518.25	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 36.4¢	$285.83	$141.43	-$144.4	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$121.45	$122.19	+$0.74	52% 13817-12605 (26422)
└ No leg	Noavg 73.3¢	$82.23	$86.9	+$4.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$39.22	$35.29	-$3.92
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 58¢	$74.8	$87.89	+$13.09	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$63.2	$52.03	-$11.17	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 59¢	$35.1	$46.1	+$11.01	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$43.27	$44.63	+$1.35	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$14.86	$12.76	-$2.1	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 75¢	$5.8	$5	-$0.8	58% 18675-13734 (32409)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.13	-$0.13	47% 4586-5092 (9678)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$1,099.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$539.15

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$995.04

Value

$476.79

PnL

-$518.25

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$285.83

Value

$141.43

PnL

-$144.4

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$121.45

Value

$122.19

PnL

+$0.74

Record

52%

13817-12605 (26422)

Both legs:

No$82.2373.3¢+$4.67

Yes$39.2225¢-$3.92

foooool<$100

Invested

$74.8

Value

$87.89

PnL

+$13.09

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.2

Value

$52.03

PnL

-$11.17

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$35.1

Value

$46.1

PnL

+$11.01

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$43.27

Value

$44.63

PnL

+$1.35

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$14.86

Value

$12.76

PnL

-$2.1

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

PnL

-$0.8

Record

58%

18675-13734 (32409)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.