FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 68¢ · $964 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$963.67
-$42.32
68.4¢ → 67.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 68¢ | $679.92 | $684.92 | +$5 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 69¢ | $207 | $202.5 | -$1.5 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Yesavg 69.5¢ | $120.91 | $73.95 | -$46.96 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 29¢ | $1.16 | $2.3 | +$1.14 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
0xheavy888Invested
$679.92
Value
$684.92
PnL
+$5
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
VeryLucky888Invested
$207
Value
$202.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$120.91
Value
$73.95
PnL
-$46.96
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.16
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$1.14
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.