FC Dallas vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 57¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$11.2K
-$701.8
56.1¢ → 57.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $4.5K | $4.4K | -$151.31 | 51% 1648-1581 (3229) |
RA rabbitfoot1 | Underavg 56¢ | $4.2K | $3.7K | -$449.53 | 53% 1104-975 (2079) |
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 56¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$167.91 | 50% 219-221 (440) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 57¢ | $848.16 | $855.6 | +$7.44 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Overavg 44.1¢ | $245 | $277.53 | +$32.53 | 58% 5770-4229 (9999) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 43¢ | $203.88 | $201.51 | -$2.37 | 58% 40808-29511 (70319) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Overavg 43.5¢ | $173.99 | $199.99 | +$26 | 56% 6920-5536 (12456) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $67.63 | $68.23 | +$0.59 | 50% 32806-32358 (65164) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $17 | $19.77 | +$2.77 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
us391CTRInvested
$4,538.99
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$151.31
Record
51%
1648-1581 (3229)
Invested
$4,195.58
Value
$3.7K
PnL
-$449.53
Record
53%
1104-975 (2079)
Invested
$1,573.87
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$167.91
Record
50%
219-221 (440)
Invested
$848.16
Value
$855.6
PnL
+$7.44
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
Invested
$245
Value
$277.53
PnL
+$32.53
Record
58%
5770-4229 (9999)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$203.88
Value
$201.51
PnL
-$2.37
Record
58%
40808-29511 (70319)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$173.99
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$26
Record
56%
6920-5536 (12456)
Invested
$67.63
Value
$68.23
PnL
+$0.59
Record
50%
32806-32358 (65164)
Invested
$17
Value
$19.77
PnL
+$2.77
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.