FC Dallas vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 73¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$13.7K
-$106.62
58.7¢ → 73¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 61.2¢ | $8.8K | $8.1K | -$673.46 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$115.35 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$31.97 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.4¢ | $691.81 | $839.13 | +$147.32 | |
NO NordhavenCapCTR | Overavg 31.4¢ | $577.6 | $1.1K | +$508.38 | 57% 2074-1552 (3626) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 41.7¢ | $610.83 | $567.97 | -$42.86 | 49% 12209-12458 (24667) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 34¢ | $339.86 | $489.79 | +$149.94 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 63.9¢ | $84.49 | $73.92 | -$10.57 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 58¢ | $87 | $45 | -$42 | 59% 9478-6467 (15945) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Underavg 34¢ | $7.81 | $11.25 | +$3.44 | 53% 15769-13947 (29716) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $3.58 | $4.09 | +$0.51 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
Invested
$8,795.6
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$673.46
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$3,219.92
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$115.35
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Both legs:
Invested
$577.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$508.38
Record
57%
2074-1552 (3626)
Invested
$610.83
Value
$567.97
PnL
-$42.86
Record
49%
12209-12458 (24667)
VeryLucky888Invested
$339.86
Value
$489.79
PnL
+$149.94
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$84.49
Value
$73.92
PnL
-$10.57
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$87
Value
$45
PnL
-$42
Record
59%
9478-6467 (15945)
Invested
$7.81
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$3.44
Record
53%
15769-13947 (29716)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.58
Value
$4.09
PnL
+$0.51
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.