Will FC Dallas vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$713.4

Smart Money Entry

77.2¢ → 98.9¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,528

Combined PnL+$719.46

Yes4 traders

Total Value$9.1

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$6.06

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 77.2¢	$2.7K	$3.4K	+$719.99	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 74¢	$30.36	$30.59	+$0.23	53% 15769-13947 (29716)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 74¢	$13.1	$11.79	-$1.31	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$3.75	$4.3	+$0.55	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$10.71	$4.07	-$6.64	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$2.35	$2.85	+$0.5	58% 18441-13525 (31966)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.94	$1.98	+$0.04	51% 846-800 (1646)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.15	$0.2	+$0.05	50% 24471-24125 (48596)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,682.35

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$719.99

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$30.36

Value

$30.59

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

$11.79

PnL

-$1.31

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.55

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.71

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$6.64

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0.04

Record

51%

846-800 (1646)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.