Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-10-28?

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (73%) · Yes at 98¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 29

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

-$571.09

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 98.4¢

+27% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares12,895

Combined PnL-$181.85

No4 traders

Total Value$172.81

Total Shares1,942

Combined PnL-$389.24

Yes — 73%No — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 88.9¢	$6.9K	$6.4K	-$476.53	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 62¢	$2.4K	$2.1K	-$28.43	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
poshposh	Yesavg 70.8¢	$705.32	$943.78	+$238.46	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 8.9¢	$761.9	$493.9	-$268.01	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 57.3¢	$215.41	$368.46	+$153.05
└ No leg	Noavg 8.9¢	$546.49	$125.43	-$421.06
RE retarb	Yesavg 80¢	$327.21	$312.89	-$14.32	49% 4194-4451 (8645)
FO foooool	Yesavg 77¢	$251.59	$303.87	+$52.29	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 67.8¢	$271.88	$292.44	+$20.56	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 28.1¢	$519.15	$129.41	-$389.74	49% 12209-12458 (24667)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 31¢	$97.96	$101.4	+$4.72	58% 40871-29553 (70424)
RO Rocko33	Yesavg 78¢	$123	$91.5	-$27.73	64% 1014-578 (1592)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 33.7¢	$22.47	$63.94	+$41.47	67% 23140-11541 (34681)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 42.3¢	$20.61	$28.28	+$7.67	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$27.06	$27.06	-$0	53% 2097-1856 (3953)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$21.46	$22.62	+$1.16	52% 5899-5543 (11442)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 68¢	$17	$16.88	-$0.13	53% 15762-13930 (29692)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$4.44	$3.9	-$0.54	58% 18441-13525 (31966)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$6,924.27

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$476.53

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

NordhavenCap

Yes

Invested

$2,359.64

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$28.43

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$705.32

Value

$943.78

PnL

+$238.46

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$761.9

Value

$493.9

PnL

-$268.01

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

Both legs:

Yes$215.4157.3¢+$153.05

No$546.498.9¢-$421.06

retarb

Yes

Invested

$327.21

Value

$312.89

PnL

-$14.32

Record

49%

4194-4451 (8645)

foooool

Yes

Invested

$251.59

Value

$303.87

PnL

+$52.29

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$271.88

Value

$292.44

PnL

+$20.56

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$519.15

Value

$129.41

PnL

-$389.74

Record

49%

12209-12458 (24667)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$97.96

Value

$101.4

PnL

+$4.72

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

Rocko33

Yes

Invested

$123

Value

$91.5

PnL

-$27.73

Record

64%

1014-578 (1592)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.47

Value

$63.94

PnL

+$41.47

Record

67%

23140-11541 (34681)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.61

Value

$28.28

PnL

+$7.67

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.06

Value

$27.06

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2097-1856 (3953)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$21.46

Value

$22.62

PnL

+$1.16

Record

52%

5899-5543 (11442)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$16.88

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

15762-13930 (29692)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Invested

$4.44

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

18441-13525 (31966)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 15 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.