Charlotte FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
$44.36
51.1¢ → 73.5¢
+44% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 75.7¢ | $881.24 | $751.7 | -$129.54 | 50% 25153-24879 (50032) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 75.7¢ | $575.54 | $380 | -$195.55 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 41.1¢ | $305.7 | $371.71 | +$66 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 41¢ | $164.82 | $201 | +$36.18 | 49% 12659-13060 (25719) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 48.6¢ | $189.18 | $194.63 | +$5.44 | 59% 45889-32231 (78120) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Overavg 36¢ | $114.57 | $140.86 | +$26.29 | 50% 10883-10699 (21582) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 36¢ | $75.8 | $105.25 | +$29.45 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54.4¢ | $38.77 | $35.61 | -$3.16 | |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $49.57 | $51.61 | +$2.05 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $0.9 | $1.33 | +$0.43 | 57% 2168-1605 (3773) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $1.04 | $1.3 | +$0.26 | 53% 4726-4250 (8976) |
Invested
$881.24
Value
$751.7
PnL
-$129.54
Record
50%
25153-24879 (50032)
Both legs:
Invested
$164.82
Value
$201
PnL
+$36.18
Record
49%
12659-13060 (25719)
Invested
$189.18
Value
$194.63
PnL
+$5.44
Record
59%
45889-32231 (78120)
Invested
$114.57
Value
$140.86
PnL
+$26.29
Record
50%
10883-10699 (21582)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.57
Value
$51.61
PnL
+$2.05
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$1.33
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
2168-1605 (3773)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
4726-4250 (8976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.