Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Charlotte FC vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 48¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31

Over53¢Under47¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$586.62

Smart Money Entry

33.3¢ → 47.5¢

+43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,302

Combined PnL+$600.54

Over5 traders

Total Value$150.76

Total Shares302

Combined PnL-$13.92

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 32.4¢	$761.82	$1.3K	+$546.2	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 60¢	$421.22	$353.02	-$68.2	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$322.84	$201.77	-$121.07
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.7¢	$98.38	$151.24	+$52.87
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 29.2¢	$54.44	$87.27	+$32.83	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$37.31	$56.42	+$19.11	60% 3357-2265 (5622)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 44.7¢	$50.06	$56.04	+$5.98	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$49	$50	+$1	47% 4585-5090 (9675)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 61¢	$58.51	$47.96	-$10.55	57% 2168-1605 (3773)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 61¢	$51.24	$42	-$9.24	55% 8309-6705 (15014)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$9.7	$11.1	+$1.4	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$3.49	$3.57	+$0.08	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.38	$1.19	-$0.19	58% 41980-30479 (72459)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$761.82

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$546.2

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$421.22

Value

$353.02

PnL

-$68.2

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

Both legs:

Over$322.8460¢-$121.07

Under$98.3840.7¢+$52.87

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.44

Value

$87.27

PnL

+$32.83

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.31

Value

$56.42

PnL

+$19.11

Record

60%

3357-2265 (5622)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$50.06

Value

$56.04

PnL

+$5.98

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49

Value

$50

PnL

+$1

Record

47%

4585-5090 (9675)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$58.51

Value

$47.96

PnL

-$10.55

Record

57%

2168-1605 (3773)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$51.24

Value

$42

PnL

-$9.24

Record

55%

8309-6705 (15014)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.7

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$1.4

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$0.19

Record

58%

41980-30479 (72459)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.