Will Orlando City SC win on 2026-10-31?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $818 held · ended Oct 31

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$818.11

Combined PnL

$42.45

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 94¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$503.71

Total Shares601

Combined PnL+$40.01

Yes4 traders

Total Value$41.65

Total Shares164

Combined PnL+$2.44

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$305.55	$272.76	-$32.79	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.5¢	$183.38	$150.36	-$33.02
└ No leg	Noavg 86.3¢	$122.17	$122.4	+$0.23
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 75.6¢	$144.79	$179.98	+$35.19	57% 2168-1605 (3773)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 72¢	$143.72	$150.7	+$6.99	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$86.77	$86.33	-$0.44	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 72¢	$49.53	$54.76	+$5.23	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$24.96	$23.52	-$1.44	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 89¢	$25.99	$19.97	-$6.02	45% 2054-2467 (4521)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$8.53	$11.98	+$3.45	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$12.9	$11.96	-$0.94	50% 25153-24879 (50032)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$4.35	$4.9	+$0.55	58% 18669-13724 (32393)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.37	$1.24	-$0.13	53% 15968-14143 (30111)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$305.55

Value

$272.76

PnL

-$32.79

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

Both legs:

Yes$183.3816.5¢-$33.02

No$122.1786.3¢+$0.23

NordhavenCap

Invested

$144.79

Value

$179.98

PnL

+$35.19

Record

57%

2168-1605 (3773)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$143.72

Value

$150.7

PnL

+$6.99

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$86.77

Value

$86.33

PnL

-$0.44

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$49.53

Value

$54.76

PnL

+$5.23

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.96

Value

$23.52

PnL

-$1.44

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

poposub<$100

Invested

$25.99

Value

$19.97

PnL

-$6.02

Record

45%

2054-2467 (4521)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$11.98

PnL

+$3.45

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$12.9

Value

$11.96

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

25153-24879 (50032)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.55

Record

58%

18669-13724 (32393)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

15968-14143 (30111)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.