Will Charlotte FC vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$46.6

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 79.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,636

Combined PnL-$56.68

Yes4 traders

Total Value$79.25

Total Shares369

Combined PnL+$10.08

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 82.5¢	$668.89	$632.31	-$36.58	57% 2168-1605 (3773)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 80¢	$361.55	$359.24	-$2.31	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 83.9¢	$200	$185.87	-$14.13	67% 23343-11749 (35092)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$83.63	$83.98	+$0.35	52% 13799-12598 (26397)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 84¢	$49.7	$46.15	-$3.55	51% 479-460 (939)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 79¢	$35.55	$35.1	-$0.45	74% 6686-2399 (9085)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25	$27.5	+$2.5	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.2¢	$20.3	$25.63	+$5.33	49% 8037-8396 (16433)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$22.82	$25.1	+$2.28	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$1.03	-$0.03	53% 4726-4250 (8976)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$668.89

Value

$632.31

PnL

-$36.58

Record

57%

2168-1605 (3773)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$361.55

Value

$359.24

PnL

-$2.31

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

pauleta23

Invested

$200

Value

$185.87

PnL

-$14.13

Record

67%

23343-11749 (35092)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$83.63

Value

$83.98

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

13799-12598 (26397)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$49.7

Value

$46.15

PnL

-$3.55

Record

51%

479-460 (939)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$35.55

Value

$35.1

PnL

-$0.45

Record

74%

6686-2399 (9085)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$27.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.3

Value

$25.63

PnL

+$5.33

Record

49%

8037-8396 (16433)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.82

Value

$25.1

PnL

+$2.28

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.