Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-10-31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.6K
-$9.82
47¢ → 46.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $952.22 | $942.09 | -$10.13 | 74% 6673-2396 (9069) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 47¢ | $379.81 | $375.77 | -$4.04 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 52¢ | $162.28 | $166.96 | +$4.68 | 53% 15955-14130 (30085) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $94 | $93 | +$0 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $31.49 | $31.16 | -$0.33 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
Invested
$952.22
Value
$942.09
PnL
-$10.13
Record
74%
6673-2396 (9069)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$379.81
Value
$375.77
PnL
-$4.04
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$162.28
Value
$166.96
PnL
+$4.68
Record
53%
15955-14130 (30085)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$94
Value
$93
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Invested
$31.49
Value
$31.16
PnL
-$0.33
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.