Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Charlotte FC vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to Score

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 35¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes65¢No35¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$16.69

Smart Money Entry

22.5¢ → 35¢

+56% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$575.57

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL+$176.15

Yes2 traders

Total Value$184.88

Total Shares446

Combined PnL-$159.46

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 23.1¢	$376.18	$519.65	+$143.47	59% 45889-32231 (78120)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 75.1¢	$465.14	$464.56	-$0.57	50% 10883-10699 (21582)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.1¢	$373.65	$330.64	-$43
└ No leg	Noavg 22.9¢	$91.49	$133.92	+$42.43
NO NordhavenCap	Yesavg 78¢	$265.59	$141.31	-$124.28	57% 2168-1605 (3773)
0xheavy888<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$78.75	$43.57	-$35.18	55% 7128-5716 (12844)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$16.28	$38.95	+$22.67	49% 12659-13060 (25719)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$6.96	$16.97	+$10	53% 4726-4250 (8976)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$376.18

Value

$519.65

PnL

+$143.47

Record

59%

45889-32231 (78120)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$465.14

Value

$464.56

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

10883-10699 (21582)

Both legs:

Invested

$265.59

Value

$141.31

PnL

-$124.28

Record

57%

2168-1605 (3773)

0xheavy888<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.75

Value

$43.57

PnL

-$35.18

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$38.95

PnL

+$22.67

Record

49%

12659-13060 (25719)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$6.96

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$10

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 35%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.