Charlotte FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 95¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.7K
-$245.55
82.3¢ → 94.5¢
+15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 89.1¢ | $2.1K | $1.8K | -$260.16 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 73¢ | $615 | $600 | -$15 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
FO foooool | Underavg 69.9¢ | $189.41 | $229.04 | +$39.63 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 5.6¢ | $74.84 | $67.19 | -$7.65 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $13.29 | $12.12 | -$1.17 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $1.6 | $0.4 | -$1.2 | 54% 10476-9103 (19579) |
Invested
$2,071.63
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$260.16
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
VeryLucky888Invested
$615
Value
$600
PnL
-$15
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$189.41
Value
$229.04
PnL
+$39.63
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
Invested
$74.84
Value
$67.19
PnL
-$7.65
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.29
Value
$12.12
PnL
-$1.17
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$1.2
Record
54%
10476-9103 (19579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.