Charlotte FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 2.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 61¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$3.7K
-$480.49
71.2¢ → 61¢
-14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 70.7¢ | $3.1K | $2.7K | -$426.14 | 50% 24471-24125 (48596) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 75.2¢ | $373.57 | $313.1 | -$60.48 | 49% 12209-12458 (24667) |
AN Anon455 | Overavg 72.5¢ | $362.5 | $305 | -$57.5 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
CA Cannae | Overavg 67¢ | $160.32 | $201 | +$40.68 | 53% 15769-13947 (29716) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 75.5¢ | $146.88 | $122.04 | -$24.84 | 59% 44789-31177 (75966) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 22.2¢ | $26.27 | $74.05 | +$47.79 | 50% 10588-10447 (21035) |
Invested
$3,149.5
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$426.14
Record
50%
24471-24125 (48596)
Invested
$373.57
Value
$313.1
PnL
-$60.48
Record
49%
12209-12458 (24667)
Invested
$362.5
Value
$305
PnL
-$57.5
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
Invested
$160.32
Value
$201
PnL
+$40.68
Record
53%
15769-13947 (29716)
Invested
$146.88
Value
$122.04
PnL
-$24.84
Record
59%
44789-31177 (75966)
Invested
$26.27
Value
$74.05
PnL
+$47.79
Record
50%
10588-10447 (21035)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.