Charlotte FC vs. CF Montréal: O/U 1.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$176.05

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,080

Combined PnL+$15.47

Under6 traders

Total Value$914.91

Total Shares4,634

Combined PnL+$160.58

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 96.1¢	$4.1K	$3.9K	+$16.71	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 77.5¢	$961.31	$997.37	+$36.06	50% 24471-24125 (48596)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77.5¢	$746	$743.59	-$2.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 19.3¢	$215.31	$253.78	+$38.47
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 16.5¢	$726.04	$877.64	+$151.6	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 20.1¢	$21.34	$24.16	+$2.81	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 0.9¢	$0.67	$8.09	+$7.43	47% 4472-4947 (9419)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$7.22	$5.98	-$1.23	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 11.1¢	$1.4	$3.32	+$1.92	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 12¢	$4.69	$1.37	-$3.32	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 15.8¢	$0.19	$0.34	+$0.15	50% 32883-32441 (65324)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$4,074.37

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$16.71

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$961.31

Value

$997.37

PnL

+$36.06

Record

50%

24471-24125 (48596)

Both legs:

Over$74677.5¢-$2.41

Under$215.3119.3¢+$38.47

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$726.04

Value

$877.64

PnL

+$151.6

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.34

Value

$24.16

PnL

+$2.81

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.67

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$7.43

Record

47%

4472-4947 (9419)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$7.22

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$1.23

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.4

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$1.92

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.69

Value

$1.37

PnL

-$3.32

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

32883-32441 (65324)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.