Spread: Charlotte FC (-1.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold CF Montréal (60%) · CF Montréal at 65¢ · $92 held · ends Oct 28

Charlotte FC36¢CF Montréal64¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

CF Montréal

Consensus Traders

CF Montréal 60%

Total Value

$92.43

Combined PnL

-$3.02

Research grade

NeutralCF Montréal at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CF Montréal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Charlotte FC36%

CF Montréal65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Charlotte FC2 traders

Total Value$48.37

Total Shares138

Combined PnL-$3.72

CF Montréal3 traders

Total Value$44.06

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$0.7

Charlotte FC — 40%CF Montréal — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Charlotte FCavg 37.8¢	$50.2	$46.53	-$3.67	53% 15742-13913 (29655)
VeryLucky888<$100	CF Montréalavg 64¢	$39.47	$29.85	+$0.39	58% 40808-29511 (70319)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	CF Montréalavg 63.3¢	$11.55	$11.86	+$0.31	59% 44657-31054 (75711)
HRTrading<$100	CF Montréalavg 59¢	$2.35	$2.35	+$0	53% 3109-2775 (5884)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Charlotte FCavg 36¢	$1.89	$1.84	-$0.05	53% 2082-1842 (3924)

CannaeCTR<$100

Charlotte FC

Invested

$50.2

Value

$46.53

PnL

-$3.67

Record

53%

15742-13913 (29655)

VeryLucky888<$100

CF Montréal

Invested

$39.47

Value

$29.85

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

40808-29511 (70319)

UpTheBlues<$100

CF Montréal

Invested

$11.55

Value

$11.86

PnL

+$0.31

Record

59%

44657-31054 (75711)

HRTrading<$100

CF Montréal

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

3109-2775 (5884)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Charlotte FC

Invested

$1.89

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

Research grade

NeutralCF Montréal at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CF Montréal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CF Montréal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.