Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will CF Montréal win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $366 held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$366.14

Combined PnL

-$131.79

Smart Money Entry

14.8¢ → 0.5¢

-97% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$165.3

Total Shares2,006

Combined PnL-$131.33

No3 traders

Total Value$200.84

Total Shares212

Combined PnL-$0.47

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$266.44	$156.26	-$110.17	59% 44789-31177 (75966)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78¢	$88.64	$101.14	+$0.57	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 92¢	$68.68	$68.53	-$0.15	52% 13597-12434 (26031)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 85.7¢	$32.06	$31.17	-$0.88	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25	$6.88	-$18.13	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.94	$2.06	-$2.88	59% 9478-6467 (15945)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$0.25	$0.11	-$0.14	53% 15769-13947 (29716)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$266.44

Value

$156.26

PnL

-$110.17

Record

59%

44789-31177 (75966)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$88.64

Value

$101.14

PnL

+$0.57

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$68.68

Value

$68.53

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

13597-12434 (26031)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$32.06

Value

$31.17

PnL

-$0.88

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$18.13

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.94

Value

$2.06

PnL

-$2.88

Record

59%

9478-6467 (15945)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

15769-13947 (29716)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.