Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 41¢ · $333 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$333.13
$11.55
37.9¢ → 40.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $158.34 | $164.43 | +$6.09 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 37¢ | $154.92 | $148.51 | +$4.19 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.4¢ | $8.83 | $9.32 | +$0.49 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $6.19 | $6.92 | +$0.64 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $3.8 | $3.95 | +$0.15 | 47% 2056-2353 (4409) |
Invested
$158.34
Value
$164.43
PnL
+$6.09
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$154.92
Value
$148.51
PnL
+$4.19
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.83
Value
$9.32
PnL
+$0.49
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$6.19
Value
$6.92
PnL
+$0.64
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
47%
2056-2353 (4409)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.