Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 3.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 81¢ · $37K held · ended Oct 31

Over19¢Under81¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.2K

Combined PnL

$4.1K

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 81¢

+37% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over19%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$22.1K

Total Shares37,963

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over6 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares20,369

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Underavg 59.5¢	$14.9K	$15.5K	+$584.08	55% 1747-1441 (3188)
TH theowalcottCTR	Overavg 44¢	$15.0K	$8.5K	+$2.0K	50% 109-110 (219)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53.6¢	$3.1K	$4.3K	+$1.3K	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 41.8¢	$4.5K	$3.5K	-$967.8	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.1¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$497.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.8¢	$3.2K	$1.7K	$-1.5K
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 69.5¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$461.09	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 30.5¢	$829.17	$1.2K	+$419.8	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 41.3¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	+$245	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 55¢	$363.13	$356.53	+$6.6	73% 6697-2416 (9113)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 40.3¢	$600	$342	+$100	55% 7136-5731 (12867)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$210.14	$231.02	+$20.88	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$135.94	$184.24	+$48.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.7¢	$74.2	$46.79	-$27.42
HRTrading	Underavg 56.3¢	$149.04	$173.42	+$24.38	53% 4792-4312 (9104)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$105.42	$118.62	+$13.2	58% 28788-21225 (50013)
└ Over leg	Overavg 41¢	$51.66	$66.78	+$15.12
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$53.76	$51.84	-$1.92
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Overavg 60.7¢	$18.2	$13.05	-$5.15	64% 1125-646 (1771)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 42.6¢	$10.1	$10.91	+$0.81	49% 8081-8480 (16561)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Under

Invested

$14,879.41

Value

$15.5K

PnL

+$584.08

Record

55%

1747-1441 (3188)

theowalcottCTR

Over

Invested

$14,999.84

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

109-110 (219)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,079.19

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,469.74

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$967.8

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

Both legs:

Under$1,300.0556.1¢+$497.22

Over$3,169.6941.8¢$-1.5K

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$2,216.82

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$461.09

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$829.17

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$419.8

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,385

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$245

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$363.13

Value

$356.53

PnL

+$6.6

Record

73%

6697-2416 (9113)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$600

Value

$342

PnL

+$100

Record

55%

7136-5731 (12867)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$210.14

Value

$231.02

PnL

+$20.88

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

Both legs:

Under$135.9448.3¢+$48.3

Over$74.254.7¢-$27.42

HRTrading

Under

Invested

$149.04

Value

$173.42

PnL

+$24.38

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$105.42

Value

$118.62

PnL

+$13.2

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Both legs:

Invested

$18.2

Value

$13.05

PnL

-$5.15

Record

64%

1125-646 (1771)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.1

Value

$10.91

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.