Columbus Crew vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 100¢

+64% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,613

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,918

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 65.8¢	$2.9K	$3.8K	+$924.73	50% 25208-24935 (50143)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 55.3¢	$1.8K	$3.3K	+$1.5K	57% 2168-1606 (3774)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 47.7¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	-$995.34	50% 33488-33047 (66535)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 60.7¢	$169.47	$221.38	+$51.9	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 66¢	$58.37	$88.4	+$30.03	59% 10257-7240 (17497)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 58¢	$34.51	$59.47	+$24.96	49% 12681-13099 (25780)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 63¢	$31.5	$49.98	+$18.48	47% 4586-5092 (9678)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 95¢	$33.32	$35.06	+$1.74	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 66¢	$6.6	$6.3	-$0.3	48% 2424-2645 (5069)
CA Cannae<$100	Overavg 66¢	$5.96	$5.69	-$0.27	53% 15980-14158 (30138)
FO fooooolCTR	Underavg 28.5¢	$156.08	$5.27	-$150.82	50% 10919-10736 (21655)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 36.4¢	$183.47	$0.25	-$183.22	59% 45969-32302 (78271)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 30.4¢	$7.94	$0.01	-$7.92	53% 4792-4312 (9104)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,870.68

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$924.73

Record

50%

25208-24935 (50143)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$1,847.01

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

57%

2168-1606 (3774)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$2,070.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$995.34

Record

50%

33488-33047 (66535)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$169.47

Value

$221.38

PnL

+$51.9

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$58.37

Value

$88.4

PnL

+$30.03

Record

59%

10257-7240 (17497)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$34.51

Value

$59.47

PnL

+$24.96

Record

49%

12681-13099 (25780)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$31.5

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$18.48

Record

47%

4586-5092 (9678)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$33.32

Value

$35.06

PnL

+$1.74

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$0.3

Record

48%

2424-2645 (5069)

Cannae<$100

Over

Invested

$5.96

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

15980-14158 (30138)

fooooolCTR

Under

Invested

$156.08

Value

$5.27

PnL

-$150.82

Record

50%

10919-10736 (21655)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$183.47

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$183.22

Record

59%

45969-32302 (78271)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.94

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.92

Record

53%

4792-4312 (9104)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.